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The women’s race at Sunday's We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we back features the reigning world champion, one of road running’s greatest talents in her return after giving birth, the prospect of a hometown hero, and a possible American masters record. Here’s what to watch for.
Who’s the Favorite?
Most often in New York City, it’s possible to pinpoint a clear favorite, such as Priscah Jeptoo last year. Not this time. Mary Keitany, Edna Kiplagat, 2011 champion Firehiwot Dado and Buzunesh Deba all have to be considered, with 2012 Bostonrunner-up Jemima Sumgong a possible beneficiary if there’s a crash-and-burn scenario in front of her.
Will the Race Have a Hometown Winner London in 2011 and 2012, the second time in 2:18:37, Keitany was one of the world's top marathoners, even with fading to third in the last mile in New York in 2011. Keitany was on maternity leave last year. Sunday’s race is her first marathon since back trouble limited her to fourth place at the 2012 Olympics. It’s unlikely that she’s regained peak form yet, while Kiplagat is the two-time defending world champion and won London in April in 2:20:21. The form chart favors Kiplagat, but for the women, this is one of the least predictable We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we backs in a long while.
Will the Race Have a Hometown Winner?
Bronx resident Buzunesh Deba, an Ethiopian, has a solid chance of being the first city resident to win since the race became a five-borough affair. Anyone who’s been second in the last two New York races – losing in 2011 by four seconds, and leading until mile 24 last year – has a chance to win. She was second in Boston in April, too, in a PR of 2:19:59.
Deba is unlikely to attempt to run away with the race like she did last year. She’ll have the crowd support and knowledge of the course. Those are important pluses for her, but none of that is likely to make any difference to, say, a 34-year-old veteran like Edna Kiplagat. Deba might make hometown history, with the emphasis on "might."
Will the Course Record Be Broken?
No, although the winner should come extremely close. Margaret Okayo, of Kenya, set the course record of 2:22:31 in 2003 in a duel with Catherine Ndereba, whose 2:23:03 is still the second fastest women’s time in race history.
Chasing fast times or taking overly aggressive approaches in New York can be an elite runner’s undoing, as Keitany learned when she faded from world record pace to in 2011 and Buzunesh Deba found out when her sizeable lead evaporated near the 24-mile mark in 2013. Still, this is a fast field. Edna Kiplagat ran 2:20:21 in London in April. Dado and Deba clocked 2:23:15 and 2:23:19, respectively, in New York in 2011. Expect to see something below 2:23 and speculation about a record all the way until the finish line tape is broken.
Will Deena Kastor Set an American Masters Record?
While it's true that anything can happen in a marathon, it would be a shock if Deena Kastor, who has the American record of 2:19:36, doesn’t take down Colleen De Reuck’s U.S. masters record of 2:28:40. Kastor, whose 2:26:58 was an American marathon debut record when she ran it in New York in 2001, Runners World Newswire.
In September, Kastor set the world masters half marathon record of 1:09:36. Some of her times in workouts are her quickest in a decade. Look for something in the high 2:26s on Sunday.
Shoes & Gear?
Desiree Linden, who ran 2:23:54 in Boston in April, thinks she’s ready to run 2:24 in her We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we back debut. She told Runner’s World Newswire she’s looking for a top three or top five finish, and she could get the latter. Kara Goucher, who set the American debut record of 2:25:53 for third place in New York in 2008, is working her way back from stress fracture hell and figures she might be good for a 2:28.
Lauren Kleppin, who ran 2:28:48 at the LA Marathon in March, Run the Boulderthon Half With Runners World, but if she just misses matching that time in daunting New York, with a 2:29:15, she’s actually made progress. Annie Bersagel, who won Dusseldorf in April in 2:28:59, is still improving, but on New York’s course, just dipping below 2:30 will be a notable achievement for her.
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